Future Hall of Fame Houston Astros Ace Elicits Intriguing Free Agency Ranking
The Houston Astros welcome back their top veteran pitcher for a stretch run, after which he will have some decisions to make.
Matthew Postins | 8 Hours Ago
Aug 16, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Astros starting pitcher Justin Verlander (35) prior to the game against the Chicago White Sox at Minute Maid Park. / Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
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The Houston Astros are expected to welcome back pitcher Justin Verlander back to the active roster on Wednesday so he can start against the Boston Red Sox.
Verlander has been on the injured list since June 18 with neck stiffness. Getting him back in the rotation is a boost for an Astros team that earlier this season made an unprecedented turnaround to take control of the American League West race.
Verlander’s focus will surely be on getting the Astros the division title and as deep in the playoffs as possible.
After that? Well, his contract status is starting to become clearer, which is part of the reason why MLB insider and former MLB general manager Jim Bowden of The Athletic has Verlander ranked No. 32 among his top 50 free agents entering the offseason.
It's not the lofty ranking Verlander had when he last hit free agency. But there are reasons why.
When the Astros traded for Verlander last summer, they inherited the remainder of the deal he signed with the New York Mets after 2022 World Series victory. That deal came with a 2025 vesting option worth $35 million. Per the trade agreement, each side would pick up $17.5 million each.
To trigger the vesting option, Verlander had to throw 140 innings this season. His injury has all but derailed his ability to trigger the option.
Verlander returns with 57 innings pitched. After he starts on Wednesday, the Astros will have 36 games left. The 41-year-old right-hander, pitching on normal rest, could get seven more starts.
So take 140 and subtract 57 and you get 83 innings. Divide 83 by seven and you get an 11.8 average.
Barring something unprecedented, Verlander isn’t getting the vesting option and will get to test free agency for the first time since 2022.
Bowden still sees a viable pitcher, based on Verlander’s record before he went on the IL — a 3-2 record with a 3.95 ERA in 10 starts. He struck out 57 and walked 17.
But there’s a larger question for the long-time veteran, he wrote.
“Verlander will turn 42 next February and it’s unknown if he will want to continue his career,” Bowden wrote.
He’s a future Hall-of-Famer at this point. He’s won 260 career games. Along the way, he won three Cy Young awards — two with Houston — an MVP award, two World Series titles, the Rookie of the Year and the pitching Triple Crown when he led the American League in 2011 with 24 wins, a 2.40 ERA and 250 strikeouts.
The question may be whether Verlander wants to try and pitch long enough to become baseball’s next 300 game winner.
