AFC vs. NFC: A Tale Of Two Conferences — NFL Week 5 Preview

AFC vs. NFC: A Tale Of Two Conferences — NFL Week 5 Preview (2019)

September 30, 2019 – by Jason Lisk

Jason McCourty and the New England Patriots continue to hold opposing offenses down (Photo by Gregory Fisher/Icon Sportswire)

The underdogs continue to have their day this NFL season, as the betting line favorites have gone a paltry 6-8 so far in Week 4. The result is a large group of teams that hover between despair and enlightenment on a weekly basis, and seem capable of both winning, and losing, to anyone.

But the feeling that anything is possible is not shared equally among the two conferences. The AFC and NFC are imbalanced so far in 2019. One conference is separated into a tiered hierarchy and ruled (so far) by a familiar king. The other conference is wide open and seemingly capable of being commanded by any number of hopeful contenders.

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AFC Outlook: Two Clear Favorites

To paraphrase a famous soccer quote from England’s Gary Lineker in regard to the Germans, twenty-two men chase a football around for 60 minutes, and in the end, the Patriots (seem to) always win. New England beat Buffalo on Sunday in a game where they had 11 total first downs on offense, and where Tom Brady threw for 150 yards and no touchdowns.

Both the Kansas City Chiefs and Patriots were vulnerable on the road yesterday, yet both pulled out close wins when things weren’t necessarily all working perfectly. The end result is that only three AFC teams have a winning record after four weeks, and the only other one (Buffal0) just lost to New England at home and is rated at No. 21 in our predictive power rankings.

This marks the first time a conference has had only three teams with a winning record at the end of Week 4 since the AFC in 1991. Add in that the two undefeated teams were also the two that entered the year as the favorites, and you have a clear class divide in the AFC.

The Patriots and Chiefs have an early stranglehold on their divisions, and are both near-locks to reach the playoffs just a quarter of the way into the season. Our 2019 NFL season projections currently have the Patriots at 13.3 wins and the Chiefs at 12.2 wins, with both at over 95% to make the playoffs, while no other team in the AFC is currently projected to get to 10 wins.

AFC South: All Mixed Up

However, there is one division in the AFC where things are completely up in the air. After four weeks, all four teams in the AFC South sit at 2-2. Jacksonville has rebounded from an 0-2 start to win two straight, and everyone else in the division seems capable of playing to the level of their competition. To illustrate this, consider that the AFC South teams are 1-5 ATS when playing as the favorite, but 8-1-1 ATS when they are the underdog.

Our projections currently give Tennessee the highest win projection in the division at 9.1 wins, with a 34% chance of winning the division. The Titans are the only AFC South team that has played three road games so far, and they also have the best point differential of the group.

AFC North: Cleveland’s Revenge

The Browns got a huge road victory at Baltimore that completely swung the AFC North outlook. In many ways, it was the mirror opposite of the Browns’ opening loss to the Titans. Cleveland got a huge fourth quarter TD run from Nick Chubb, and then a pair of Lamar Jackson interceptions pushed the final margin further.

Baltimore could have taken a commanding lead in the AFC North with a win. Instead, our NFL projections now have the two teams with virtually identical projected win totals (9.0 for Cleveland, 8.9 for Baltimore) but Cleveland as the favorite thanks to the head-to-head victory and future schedule. (The Browns still get the Cardinals and Dolphins while the Ravens have already played both.)

NFC Outlook: Wide Open

The NFC stands in sharp contrast to the AFC after four weeks. The conference favorite coming into the week, the Los Angeles Rams, gave up 55 points in a shocking home loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Add in a Dallas loss to New Orleans on Sunday night, and the only remaining undefeated NFC team is the San Francisco 49ers, who had a bye in Week 4 and saw their standing improve without taking the field.

In contrast to the AFC, where New England or Kansas City are the heavy favorites to claim the top seed, it’s probably safer to take the field in the NFC.

San Francisco is the only NFC team projected with a better than 70% chance of making the playoffs now, while nine different teams have a greater than 3% chance of finishing with the best record in the conference. You can see our full projections for the NFC here.

NFC North: Toughest in the NFL

The NFC North has the best combined record in the NFL through four weeks (10-5-1), every team has a positive point differential, and the only two losses outside the division are to the Chiefs and Eagles.

In our predictive ratings, three of the teams are in the top ten, and Detroit is near average (-0.5 points under average). Our division projections have the Bears with the slightly higher average win total (9.6 to 9.5) compared to the Packers, but Green Bay with the higher odds of winning the division (34% to 31% for Chicago) thanks to their early 2-0 start in the division including a win at Chicago.

NFC South: Saints holding on, Bucs and Panthers surging

New Orleans has managed to win two games without Drew Brees at quarterback, thanks to stellar performances from the defense and special teams. If they can manage to stay near the lead while Brees is out, it would be quite an accomplishment.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are floundering, but the Panthers and Buccaneers both came up with huge road wins. Tampa Bay is a missed short field goal against the Giants away from a three-game winning streak, and were impressive in winning at the Rams. Carolina, meanwhile, went into Houston and shut down the Texans. Both of those teams now have a realistic chance of reaching the playoffs (34% for Carolina, 27% for Tampa Bay).

Other Key News Heading Into Week 5

Buffalo QB Josh Allen left Sunday’s game with a concussion and his status for the Week 5 game against Tennessee is uncertain.Oakland Raiders LB Vontaze Burfict has been suspended for the rest of the 2019 season for his helmet hit on Colts TE Jack Doyle.Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky dislocated his shoulder early in Sunday’s game against the Vikings and has a slight labrum tear. Replacement Chase Daniel is likely to start this week at quarterback when the Bears travel to London to face the Raiders.The Miami Dolphins continue their march toward history: four games, four losses by 20+ points. They are now at a -137 point differential through four weeks, still the worst NFL start ever. Miami has opened Week 5 as a 10-point underdog against BYE WEEK. (That was a joke.)In addition to losing again on a last-second field goal, Denver lost first round pick Bradley Chubb tore his ACL in Sunday’s game is done for the year.The losing team scored 10 or fewer points in eight of the 14 games so far in Week 4.Dwayne Haskins replaced Case Keenum at quarterback for Washington and threw three interceptions in 17 passes. Washington managed only 176 total yards agains the Giants, the second-lowest game total for a team this year. The only one lower was the Jets against the Patriots (who happen to be Washington’s opponent in Week 5). It’s unclear as of Monday afternoon whether Keenum or Haskins will start this week.

Early Look-Ahead to Week 5 Key Matchups

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

The Rams were stunned by the Bucs at home for their first loss of the year, and now have to turn around and travel on the road to Seattle on a short week. Seattle, meanwhile, comfortably handled Arizona on the road, so both teams enter this game at 3-1. It’s early in the season, but this one could be hugely important for Seattle. Our projections give them a 33% chance of making the playoffs in the tougher NFC, but a win would likely increase their chances dramatically.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers

Two teams, two backup quarterbacks who have seemingly revived hopes for each franchise. Both the Jaguars and Panthers started the season 0-2, but the winner of this game will have a three-game winning streak and a realistic shot at the playoffs, something that seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago. Cam Newton has already been ruled out for Week 5, so Kyle Allen will get his third straight start for the Panthers.

Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys

Green Bay and Dallas both lost their first game of the season last week, and both are still the favorites to win their respective divisions in the NFC. This one could have early tiebreaker implications. Green Bay’s offense finally got going a bit in their Thursday night loss, but the defense had its worst performance of the year. Meanwhile, the Cowboys had been rolling but managed only 10 points in the loss at New Orleans.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy NFL Week 5, and if you’re in an NFL pool or planning on betting some of the Week 5 games, please check out our NFL Survivor Picks, Football Pick’em Picks, and NFL Betting Picks.

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