I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering €“ I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering €“ this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Browns vs. Steelers.
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NFL Betting Primer: Browns vs. Steelers
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers – Spread Line: PIT +2.5
This just smells like a massive underdog bounce-back spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers after their home shellacking versus the San Francisco 49ers.
Because even as badly as the 49ers completely curb-stopped the Steel Curtain, the pass rush led by T.J. Watt did not give up. No team generated a higher pressure rate (56%) than the Steelers did in Week 1. And there was never a time where Pittsburgh was facing obvious passing scripts down 20-0 in the first half. The Browns will be without their stud offensive tackle, Jack Conklin, after he got hurt on Sunday.
And the Steelers are 3-2-1 as home underdogs over the past three seasons. And when these two teams matched up last season, both home teams emerged victorious by double-digits.
Even though the narrative on the Steelers offense isn’t great given the injury to Diontae Johnson and how the Browns clamped down the Bengals offense in Week 1, I don’t think the Cleveland offense excelled particularly in the passing game. Think the Steelers’ defense can create enough havoc to keep this game close and potentially win ugly in a classic AFC North dogfight.
If it ain’t broke don’t fix it. The rushing line props moved one yard for Deshaun Watson from last week. It’s listed at 24.5. Not high enough. So again, we are smashing the over. Watson rushed for 45 yards in a non-competitive game in Week 1. He’s averaged 30 rushing yards since becoming the Browns starter last season. And with the Steelers boasting an elite pass rush, I expect Watson to scramble more than ever to pick up yardage with his legs. The stone-cold lock of the week is BACK.
- My picks: Steelers +2.5 (-108 DraftKings Sportsbook), Under 39.0 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
- My props: Deshaun Watson OVER 24.5 rushing yards (-120 DraftKings)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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