Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Paul Skenes Props (Sunday, August 4)
by Brady Trettenero in MLB Baseball
Updated Aug 3, 2024 · 11:41 PM PDT
Jul 29, 2024; Houston, Texas, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Paul Skenes (30) reacts after a play during the third inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve made our Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction for Sunday’s MLB matchupThe Pirates are slight favorites with a moneyline of -155 as Paul Skenes takes the moundRead below for Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction, odds, and Skenes props for August 4, 2024
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up their three-game series Sunday afternoon at the beautiful PNC Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 PM ET in this rubber match between two NL playoff hopefuls.
The Pirates are slight favorites in the Sunday MLB odds with a moneyline of -155, while the Diamondbacks are +130 underdogs. The run line is set at Pirates -1.5 (+140) and Diamondbacks +1.5 (-162), with the over/under at 8 runs.
Let’s get into our D-Backs vs Pirates production for Sunday as we analyze the betting odds and best Paul Skenes props to bet.
Diamondbacks vs Pirates Prediction Sunday
The Pirates took game two on Saturday by a score of 4-2 to even up the series. Pittsburgh has now won four of their last six games overall as they try to chase down a Wild Card spot.
Meanwhile, the D-Backs saw their four-game winning streak come to an end. Arizona still sits in the 2nd Wild Card position, though, at 59-52, 2.5 games ahead of Pittsburgh.
Rookie phenom Paul Skenes (6-1, 1.90 ERA) takes the mound for the Bucs as he looks to bolster his NL Cy Young case. The young flamethrower has been absolutely sensational, punching out 103 batters in his first 80 big-league innings. Skenes has allowed two earned runs or less in eight straight starts.
He’ll be challenged by an Arizona lineup that’s piping hot right now, scoring 7.9 runs per game over their last 10 with a robust .309 team average. Something’s gotta give Sunday.
Arizona counters with Ryne Nelson (8-6, 4.53 ERA). The second-year hurler has been up and down but is coming off his best outing of the year, blanking the Nationals over seven innings with nine Ks. Still, Nelson has been knocked around on the road this season to the tune of a 3.83 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
SkenesVSNelson
| 6-1 | Record | 8-6 |
| 1.90 | ERA | 4.53 |
| 0.910 | WHIP | 1.359 |
| 6.44 | K/BB | 2.47 |
| .198 | Opp Avg | .281 |
Despite Arizona’s offensive surge, I’m backing Skenes to keep dealing and quiet the D-Backs’ bats. With Nelson’s tendency to allow hard contact and the Pirates’ bullpen finding its rhythm, I like the Pirates to score just enough to secure the win.
But with two talented young arms on the mound, I’m expecting a relatively low-scoring game. Give me the under 7.5 as my best bet with a slight lean towards the Pirates on the ML. But I’ll be tossing Arizona’s run line of +1.5 into an SGP, as my predicted final score is 3-2.
ARI-PIT Sunday Picks:
Under 8 (-120)Diamondbacks +1.5 (-162)
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Arizona vs Pittsburgh Odds – August 4th
| Team | Moneyline | Run Line | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | +130 | +1.5 (-162) | Over 8 (-110) |
| Pirates | -155 | -1.5 (+140) | Under 8 (-120) |
The Pirates are -155 moneyline favorites, implying a 60.8% probability of winning the game. Conversely, the Diamondbacks are +130 underdogs, indicating a 43.5% chance of pulling off the upset. The run line of Pirates -1.5 (+140) suggests that oddsmakers believe there’s a decent chance Pittsburgh wins by more than one run.
A B-Rey BLAST💥 pic.twitter.com/nQfMrF9dLc
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) August 4, 2024
The over/under is set at 8 runs, with the under slightly favored at -120 (implied probability of 54.5%). This relatively low total can be attributed to the expected pitcher’s duel between Skenes and Nelson, as well as the Pirates’ strong bullpen performance in recent games.
It’s worth noting that the Pirates have won six of their last seven day games after playing the previous day, while the Diamondbacks have lost four of their last five day games against National League opponents with winning records.
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Odds as of August 3rd, 2024. Check out the top MLB betting sites for Pirates vs D-Backs baseball.
Paul Skenes Props to Bet
Given Paul Skenes’ impressive rookie campaign, there are several intriguing prop bets I’m considering for Sunday’s game. Make sure to shop around to find the best odds for these bets.
Skenes Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120):
Skenes has hit this number in 10 of his 13 starts. He’s averaging 11.5 K/9, good for 6th in MLB among qualified starters. The D-Backs also have the 5th-most Ks in baseball. Love the over here.
Skenes Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-150):
The young ace has allowed two or fewer earned runs in each of his last eight starts, so this prop is another safe play. You have to lay the juice in the MLB player props, but a same-game parlay is a great way to get some action on this play at reduced juice.
Skenes to Record a Win (+120):
With the Pirates favored and Skenes on the mound, betting on him to secure the victory offers decent value.
Additional Prop Bet Play
Ketel Marte Over 0.5 Hits
While Skenes should have another strong afternoon on the mound, I don’t think he completely shuts down Arizona’s hottest batter.
Marte has been on fire since the start of July and is riding a five-game hitting streak. Betting on him to record at least one hit is a non-brainer parlay addition for betters backing the D-Backs.
PIT vs ARI Injury Report
The only notable injury from Saturday’s game was Pirates veteran outfielder Andrew McCutchen, who exited with a left quad issue after singling in the sixth inning.
McCutchen’s status for Sunday’s contest is uncertain, but if he’s unable to play, it would be a blow to Pittsburgh’s lineup.
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