NFL Week 9 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2020)
November 10, 2020 – by Jason Lisk
Christian McCaffrey and the Carolina Panthers pulled at all the stops against Kansas City (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire)
Week 9 was a week of lots of close calls, especially for big favorites. In the end, though, most of them survived.
Miami continued their run of good form, winning at Arizona despite getting outgained again, as the game came down to multiple 4th-and-1 decisions late that went Miami’s way.Minnesota continued their surge with a second straight division win in the NFC North, this time against the Detroit Lions.Dallas finally snapped their streak of not covering the spread, getting their first cover of the season as a 14-point underdog against Pittsburgh. The Cowboys led most of the way before losing late.The New York Jets almost snapped their winless streak to start the year, but came up just short against New England.
In total, the four biggest favorites of the week ended up going 4-0 straight up, but did so by a combined 12 points, with three of them trailing at halftime.
In this post, we’ll examine not only how teams performed against the point spread and over/under lines in Week 9, but also review some of the fluky outcomes that can make ATS results misleading.
This level of analysis sometimes provides hints as to which teams may be setting up well to cover the spread in the future. (To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)
NFL Week 1 Picks
Betting – Survivor – Pick’em
Start Free TrialGet The Season
NFL Week 9 By the Betting Numbers
Biggest upset: Miami over Arizona (+6, +210 money line)Biggest ATS cover margin: New Orleans over Tampa Bay (+38, won by 35 points as 3-point underdog)Most points above over/under line: Seattle-Buffalo (+22.5, 78 total points vs. O/U line of 55.5)Most points below over/under line: Indianapolis-Baltimore (-13.5, 34 total points vs. O/U line of 47.5)Most points scored vs. team expectation: Buffalo (44 points vs. 26.25 expected)Fewest points scored vs. team expectation: Tampa Bay (3 points vs. 27.0 expected)
Best Passing Week Ever … Except for Tom Brady
Over at Football Perspective, Chase Stuart notes that Week 9 was the Greatest Passing Week in NFL History. Quarterbacks combined to complete 68.0% of passes, threw 55 TD passes to only 18 INTs, and averaged 7.86 yards per pass attempt, while taking a low number of sacks.
As remarkable as it was, you should also consider that this week featured two different quarterbacks making their first career starts (Garrett Gilbert with Dallas and Jake Luton with Jacksonville), and eight of the 28 teams in action this week had a different starting quarterback in Week 9 than their opening game starter.
Equally notable is that the numbers were held down by the veterans. Tom Brady had the worst performance amid a week of passing explosion, throwing three interceptions, barely clearing 200 yards and scoring no touchdowns. Philip Rivers, against Baltimore, had the second-worst numbers, at 227 yards, no touchdowns, and an interception.
Houston’s Defense Has a Problem
I don’t know if this is exactly a revelation, but Houston has a major problem on defense. It’s a big reason why they’ve fallen to 1-7 ATS despite holding on to win their second game of the year against Jacksonville.
Jacksonville QB Jake Luton, pressed into his first career start as a rookie, averaged 8 yards per pass attempt against them and nearly brought the Jaguars back, just missing on a two-point conversion attempt to tie the game.
If you are a glass half-full kind of guy, evaluating Luton’s performance, you might consider those numbers by a rookie backup to be great.
If you are a glass half-empty person, you could point out that it was actually the second-worst passing performance against Houston this year, ahead of only Gardner Minshew in Jacksonville’s other game against Houston.
The Houston Texans have not held a QB under a passer rating of 90.0 this year, and everyone but Luton and Minshew has been over 100.0. However, they are making up for their inability to prevent QBs from being extremely efficient by also allowing RBs to run free. Houston is dead last in rushing yards allowed and next to last in yards per carry allowed on defense.
So it would be wise to temper the expectations on Jake Luton until he’s played against a different defense.
Carolina Plays to Win
Carolina Panthers head coach Matt Rhule had one of the most impressive displays on Sunday, in a loss. He did everything he could to maximize his team’s chances, taking appropriate risks given that he was up against the defending Super Bowl champs. Here is a rundown:
After a long opening drive, Carolina faced a 4th-and-3. Most coaches would have taken the field goal points in that situation, but Carolina went for it and scored a touchdown on a Teddy Bridgewater pass to Christian McCaffrey.On the next possession, Carolina ran a fake punt on their own side of the field that resulted in a big gain, and they scored another touchdown to go up 14-3 while Patrick Mahomes had barely touched the ball.On 4th and 14 at the start of the 4th quarter, down by 9, Carolina went and converted on a great run by Bridgewater. While that’s the right call going against the Chiefs offense, we know plenty of coaches that would have punted away that one and tried to just play defense.Carolina immediately tried an onside kick after the touchdown on that drive to bring it within 2 points, which failed. Plenty of coaches would have also kicked that away.After yet another touchdown, and having three timeouts, the Panthers tried the onside kick again.
Not every decision worked out, but Rhule came into the game and pushed it, recognizing that he needed to be aggressive to try to steal the game. He almost pulled it off. That bodes well going forward, and despite the current four-game losing streak, this will be a team to watch in the future.
NFL Home Field Advantage in 2020
One of the things we are tracking this year is how home teams are performing, with many teams playing in front of no fans to start the year. In Week 9, home teams went 5-9 straight up and 7-7 ATS.
Weekly NFL Home Team Records, 2020 Season To Date
| Week | W | L | T | WIN PCT | ATS W | ATS L | ATS T | ATS PCT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.0% | 9 | 7 | 0 | 56.3% |
| 2 | 11 | 5 | 0 | 68.8% | 8 | 8 | 0 | 50.0% |
| 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 40.6% | 7 | 9 | 0 | 43.7% |
| 4 | 6 | 9 | 0 | 30.8% | 5 | 10 | 0 | 33.3% |
| 5 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 61.5% | 6 | 8 | 0 | 42.9% |
| 6 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 50.0% | 6 | 8 | 0 | 42.9% |
| 7 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 42.9% | 6 | 8 | 0 | 42.9% |
| 8 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 50.0% | 8 | 6 | 0 | 57.1% |
| 9 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 35.7% | 7 | 7 | 0 | 50.0% |
| Overall | 65 | 67 | 1 | 49.2% | 62 | 71 | 0 | 46.6% |
There were several big road favorites in Week 9, and all survived with wins (Pittsburgh, New England, and Houston all coming down to the final minutes). With those results, and home teams having a losing record this week, home teams have now lost more games than they have won for the season.
We saw that last year, home teams were also under .500 early in the season. Week 9 last year was the first time that they crossed over to having a winning record since Week 1 last year. At the conclusion of Week 9 in 2019, home teams were only 50.8% SU and 43.5% ATS through the first nine weeks of the season.
Over the previous five seasons (2015-2019), home teams have won 56.1% SU and 48.5% ATS in the first eight weeks.
So home teams are not winning, though they are covering the spread more than last year at the same point, likely due to oddsmakers accounting for reduced home field advantage in 2020.
2020 Point Spread Result Splits
Here’s how some of the more standard spilts look after Week 9:
Road teams are covering 53.4% of the timeUnderdogs are covering 57.9% of the timeCombining those two categories, road underdogs are covering the spread 58.8% of the time in 2020Despite the more general trend that road teams are covering at higher rates, home underdogs are 27-21 (56.2%) ATSUnderdogs in Division games are 29-16 ATS (64.4%)
2020 Scoring vs. Historical Seasons
We can say, now that we have surpassed the halfway point of the season, that 2020 should be the highest scoring season in NFL history. Games continue to average over 50 points scored per game, nearly four more points per game than 2013, when games averaged 46.8 points for the season.
Here’s a running tally of how overall NFL scoring so far in 2020 compares to the full season averages of recent seasons, based on average total points scored per game.
Average Points Scored Per Game, By Season
| 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49.4 | 45.6 | 46.7 | 43.4 | 45.6 |
Turnovers, Miscues & Failures: Week 9 Edition
In this section each week, we list a summary of drives that ended with turnovers, but not only official turnovers like interceptions and fumbles.
We also tally up other high-leverage events that likely led to either loss of points or great field position for an opponent. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field goal attempts.
Week 9 Team ATS Records Based On Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed 4th Down Attempts
| Team | Turnovers | FG Miss | Downs | TOTAL | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | Loss |
| Indianapolis | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | Loss |
| Seattle | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Loss |
| Washington | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | Loss |
| Detroit | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | Loss |
| Chicago | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Loss |
| San Francisco | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Loss |
| Denver | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | Loss |
| Pittsburgh | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Loss |
| Arizona | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | Loss |
| New Orleans | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Win |
| Minnesota | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | Win |
| Kansas City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | Loss |
| Dallas | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | Win |
| Carolina | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | Win |
| Jacksonville | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | Win |
| New England | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| Houston | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Loss |
| Baltimore | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| NY Jets | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| NY Giants | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | Win |
| Buffalo | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| Atlanta | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| Las Vegas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | Win |
| LA Chargers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | Loss |
| Green Bay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Win |
| Tennessee | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Win |
| Miami | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | Win |
Teams with 3 or more miscues ended up 2-10 ATS in Week 9, with the only two wins coming in games where the opponent also had three or more.
Teams with 1 or fewer miscues went 9-3 ATS with two of the losses coming in games where the opponent also had one or fewer. The only game that doesn’t qualify there is Houston, who failed to cover against Jacksonville despite having fewer miscues and facing a quarterback making his first career start.
Last week, we wrote an article about teams with extreme yards per point scored splits, which is indirectly measuring some of the same things that this section is monitoring. Teams that score a lot of points relative to their yards do so by minimizing mistakes and benefiting from their opponent’s mistakes.
The six teams with a net positive in this category for the season of +10 or better, entering Week 9, went 2-4 ATS in Week 9. The three teams in action (Philadelphia had a bye) who were a net negative of -10 or worse for the year coming into the week went 3-0 ATS.
Drive-Ending Miscues By Team: 2020 Season Tally
Here’s a summary of the full season so far showing the net number of drives ending in turnovers or miscues for each team.
As you can see, the top of this list, populated by teams that are better at avoiding mistakes so far, have a good spread record while the bottom does not.
Teams that are a net +10 or better on miscues so far this season are 27-13-1 ATS; teams that are a net -10 or worse are 12-22 ATS. However, past results may not be indicative of future outcomes, because this tells us what has happened so far.
In Week 9, there were two matchups between teams in the top and bottom of this list. Carolina and Dallas both covered big spreads against Kansas City and Pittsburgh, respectively, when they did not have a rash of mistakes in Week 9.
2020 Season Summary, Drives Ending in Turnovers or Other Failed Plays
| Team | Mistakes | Opponent | Net | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami | 10 | 27 | 17 | 6-2 |
| Baltimore | 13 | 29 | 16 | 4-3-1 |
| Pittsburgh | 11 | 24 | 13 | 6-2 |
| Kansas City | 12 | 24 | 12 | 6-3 |
| Seattle | 12 | 22 | 10 | 5-3 |
| Tampa Bay | 15 | 23 | 8 | 4-4 |
| Atlanta | 15 | 22 | 7 | 4-5 |
| Green Bay | 9 | 15 | 6 | 6-2 |
| New Orleans | 10 | 15 | 5 | 4-4 |
| Tennessee | 12 | 17 | 5 | 3-5 |
| Cincinnati | 13 | 17 | 4 | 6-2 |
| Buffalo | 17 | 19 | 2 | 4-5 |
| LA Rams | 18 | 19 | 1 | 4-4 |
| Houston | 12 | 13 | 1 | 1-7 |
| Arizona | 16 | 16 | 0 | 5-3 |
| NY Giants | 19 | 18 | -1 | 6-3 |
| Chicago | 21 | 19 | -2 | 5-4 |
| Indianapolis | 17 | 14 | -3 | 4-4 |
| Detroit | 17 | 13 | -4 | 3-5 |
| LA Chargers | 16 | 12 | -4 | 4-3-1 |
| NY Jets | 22 | 18 | -4 | 2-7 |
| San Francisco | 20 | 15 | -5 | 4-5 |
| Washington | 21 | 16 | -5 | 3-4-1 |
| New England | 20 | 15 | -5 | 3-5 |
| Cleveland | 18 | 12 | -6 | 3-5 |
| Las Vegas | 12 | 6 | -6 | 5-3 |
| Minnesota | 18 | 11 | -7 | 5-3 |
| Denver | 26 | 17 | -9 | 5-3 |
| Carolina | 19 | 9 | -10 | 5-4 |
| Jacksonville | 25 | 13 | -12 | 3-5 |
| Philadelphia | 27 | 15 | -12 | 3-5 |
| Dallas | 29 | 14 | -15 | 1-8 |
2020 NFL ATS & Over/Under Performance By Team
Finally, here are updated against the point spread and over/under records so far in 2020. You can check out more trends on our BetIQ NFL betting trends page.
2020 NFL ATS and O/U Records
| Team | W | L | T | Streak ATS | Over | Under | Push | O/U Streak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 5 | 3 | 0 | L1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | O2 |
| Atlanta | 4 | 5 | 0 | W2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | O1 |
| Baltimore | 4 | 4 | 0 | W1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | U1 |
| Buffalo | 4 | 5 | 0 | W1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | O2 |
| Carolina | 5 | 4 | 0 | W1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | O1 |
| Chicago | 5 | 4 | 0 | L1 | 3 | 6 | 0 | U1 |
| Cincinnati | 6 | 2 | 0 | W3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | O3 |
| Cleveland | 3 | 5 | 0 | L3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | U1 |
| Dallas | 1 | 8 | 0 | W1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | U4 |
| Denver | 5 | 3 | 0 | L1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | O3 |
| Detroit | 3 | 5 | 0 | L2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | O2 |
| Green Bay | 6 | 2 | 0 | W1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | O2 |
| Houston | 1 | 7 | 0 | L3 | 5 | 3 | 0 | O1 |
| Indianapolis | 4 | 4 | 0 | L1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | U1 |
| Jacksonville | 3 | 5 | 0 | W1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | O2 |
| Kansas City | 6 | 3 | 0 | L1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | O1 |
| LA Chargers | 5 | 3 | 0 | L2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | O5 |
| LA Rams | 4 | 4 | 0 | L1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | U5 |
| Las Vegas | 5 | 3 | 0 | W2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | O1 |
| Miami | 6 | 2 | 0 | W4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | O1 |
| Minnesota | 5 | 3 | 0 | W2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | O3 |
| New England | 3 | 5 | 0 | L1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | O2 |
| New Orleans | 3 | 5 | 0 | W1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | U1 |
| NY Giants | 6 | 3 | 0 | W3 | 3 | 6 | 0 | U1 |
| NY Jets | 2 | 7 | 0 | W1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | O1 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 5 | 0 | W1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | U2 |
| Pittsburgh | 6 | 2 | 0 | L1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | U1 |
| San Francisco | 4 | 5 | 0 | L2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | O2 |
| Seattle | 5 | 3 | 0 | L1 | 7 | 1 | 0 | O4 |
| Tampa Bay | 4 | 5 | 0 | L2 | 5 | 4 | 0 | U1 |
| Tennessee | 3 | 5 | 0 | W1 | 5 | 2 | 1 | U1 |
| Washington | 4 | 4 | 0 | L1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | U1 |
Other Recent Betting Articles on TeamRankings
NFL Betting: Are Teams With Extreme Yards Per Point Good Bets?
NFL Betting: The ATS Curse Of Home Teams Seeking A Division Series Sweep
NFL Betting: Do Big Interception Games Create Future Betting Value?
NFL Betting: In The NFC East, Home Field Advantage Is Fake News
NFL Betting: The Miami Dolphins Go from Big Underdogs to Big Favorites
NFL Betting: Key Numbers for NFL Teasers
NFL Betting: Using Game Totals and Point Spreads to Inform Passing Yard Prop Bets
NFL Betting: ATS Performance Of West Coast Teams Going East (Travel Impact)
NFL Betting: Do Home Teams Have An Edge In Thursday Night Football?
NFL Betting: How Much Are Injuries To Star Running Backs Really Worth?
NFL Betting: Does Denver Have An Early Season ATS Advantage?
NFL Week 1 Picks
Betting – Survivor – Pick’em
Start Free TrialGet The Season
If you liked this post, please share it. Thank you! Twitter Facebook
NFL Football Pool Picks NFL Survivor Pool Picks NCAA Bracket Picks College Bowl Pool Picks College Football Pool Picks NFL Picks NBA Picks MLB Picks College Football Picks College Basketball Picks NFL Predictions NBA Predictions MLB Predictions College Football Predictions College Basketball Predictions NFL Spread Picks NBA Spread Picks MLB Spread Picks College Football Spread Picks College Basketball Spread Picks NFL Rankings NBA Rankings MLB Rankings College Football Rankings College Basketball Rankings NFL Stats NBA Stats MLB Stats College Football Stats College Basketball Stats NFL Odds NBA Odds MLB Odds College Football Odds College Basketball Odds A product ofTeamRankings BlogAboutTeamJobsContact
© 2005-2024 Team Rankings, LLC. All Rights Reserved. Statistical data provided by Gracenote.
TeamRankings.com is not affiliated with the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA®) or March Madness Athletic Association, neither of which has supplied, reviewed, approved or endorsed the material on this site. TeamRankings.com is solely responsible for this site but makes no guarantee about the accuracy or completeness of the information herein.
Terms of ServicePrivacy Policy
