On Wisconsin, Off Georgia — College Football Rankings & Projections Update

On Wisconsin, Off Georgia — College Football Rankings & Projections Update (2019)

October 15, 2019 – by Jason Lisk

Jonathan Taylor and Wisconsin have been rolling over teams in 2019 (Photo by Lawrence Iles/Icon Sportswire)

In this post we highlight our biggest college football rankings and season projections changes heading into Week 8 of the 2019 season.

The highlights are below, but remember to check out the latest updates to our full college football projected standings and win totals and college football power ratings.

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College Football Week 8 Ratings Updates

10 Biggest Ratings Increases for Week 8

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Wins Change	Result
111	UNLV	Mountain West	-13.6	4.5	4.3	1.5	W at Vanderbilt 34-10
125	Bowling Grn	MAC	-24.6	4.2	3.5	1.4	W vs. Toledo 20-7
13	Utah	Pac-12	17.0	3.8	9.9	0.7	W at Oregon St 52-7
59	Purdue	Big Ten	1.2	3.5	4.3	1.1	W vs. Maryland 40-14
46	Navy	AAC	4.3	3.5	8.0	1.0	W at Tulsa 45-17
41	Minnesota	Big Ten	5.4	3.1	8.4	0.9	W vs. Nebraska 34-7
3	Wisconsin	Big Ten	29.2	2.9	11.0	0.3	W vs. Michigan St 38-0
25	S Carolina	SEC	11.6	2.5	6.4	1.2	W at Georgia 20-17
10	Oregon	Pac-12	20.7	2.4	9.8	0.3	W vs. Colorado 45-3
93	Florida Intl	CUSA	-8.7	2.4	6.1	0.6	W vs. Charlotte 48-23
84	LA Tech	CUSA	-6.0	2.4	9.0	0.3	W vs. U Mass 69-21

UNLV was the biggest mover of the week, winning comfortably at Vanderbilt. Oregon and Utah both climb in the rankings and are now both inside the Top 13. South Carolina got the big upset at Georgia. Minnesota and Wisconsin both moved to 3-0 in the Big Ten Western Division, and could be heading for a big rivalry showdown at the end of the season.

10 Biggest Ratings Decreases for Week 8

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Rating Change	Total Wins	Total Wins Change	Result
61	Arizona	Pac-12	0.5	-2.2	5.7	-0.6	L vs. Washington 51-27
72	Colorado	Pac-12	-1.9	-2.4	4.4	-0.5	L at Oregon 45-3
56	Nebraska	Big Ten	1.8	-2.5	5.5	-0.8	L at Minnesota 34-7
21	Michigan St	Big Ten	13.6	-2.5	7.4	-0.3	L at Wisconsin 38-0
7	Georgia	SEC	24.0	-3.1	9.7	-1.2	L vs. S Carolina 20-17
86	Tulsa	AAC	-6.5	-3.3	3.4	-0.8	L vs. Navy 45-17
100	Vanderbilt	SEC	-10.6	-3.8	2.5	-1.2	L vs. UNLV 34-10
43	Maryland	Big Ten	4.6	-3.8	5.1	-1.1	L at Purdue 40-14
82	Oregon St	Pac-12	-5.4	-3.9	3.1	-0.6	L vs. Utah 52-7
83	Toledo	MAC	-5.6	-4.0	7.9	-1.5	L at Bowling Grn 20-7

Remember when Nebraska was a hot breakout candidate? Yeah, not so much. Score this one for recent program history and performance matters. Getting to six wins will be an achievement now (currently 4-3, but Nebraska is an underdog according to our ratings for each of the last five games).

Arizona and Colorado both suffered big losses in the Pac-12 to conference favorites and saw their ratings take a hit. Is there any team more inconsistent than Maryland? They are now 3-3, with all three wins by at least 40 points and now two of their losses by more than 20.

The TR Top 25

Note: These are predictive ratings, driven by margins of victory and not a team’s win-loss resume so far. You can see the full 2019 college football power ratings here.

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	36.9
2	Alabama	SEC	33.3
3	Wisconsin	Big Ten	29.2
4	Clemson	ACC	26.9
5	Penn State	Big Ten	25.8
6	LSU	SEC	25.5
7	Georgia	SEC	24.0
8	Oklahoma	Big 12	23.8
9	Auburn	SEC	21.6
10	Oregon	Pac-12	20.7
11	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	19.9
12	Florida	SEC	17.4
13	Utah	Pac-12	17.0
14	Michigan	Big Ten	16.1
15	Washington	Pac-12	15.7
16	Central FL	AAC	15.5
17	Iowa	Big Ten	14.7
18	Texas	Big 12	14.7
19	Missouri	SEC	13.8
20	Texas A&M	SEC	13.6
21	Michigan St	Big Ten	13.6
22	Iowa State	Big 12	13.1
23	USC	Pac-12	12.3
24	Cincinnati	AAC	11.7
25	S Carolina	SEC	11.6

Wisconsin makes a big move up to No. 3 with a shutout of Michigan State. We are heading for a big meeting on October 26th between Wisconsin and Ohio State. Georgia drops all the way to No. 7 with their loss at home to South Carolina. Oklahoma solidified their standing in the Big 12 with a win over Texas. South Carolina has played a very tough schedule so far, and moves into our Top 25 after the Georgia win.

Boise State, Arizona State, SMU, Baylor, Minnesota, and Appalachian State all make the AP Top 25 but do not appear in our rankings. Baylor was in our Top 25 last week, but survived in OT against Texas Tech, lowering their predictive rating.

CFB Week 8 Projections Updates

Top Three Conference Championship Odds for Each Conference

Conference	1st Favorite	Odds to Win	2nd Favorite	Odds to Win	3rd Favorite	Odds to Win
ACC	Clemson	90%	No Carolina	3%	Virginia	3%
Big 12	Oklahoma	72%	Texas	11%	Iowa State	8%
Big Ten	Ohio State	60%	Wisconsin	31%	Penn State	8%
Pac 12	Oregon	56%	Utah	23%	USC	13%
SEC	Alabama	57%	Georgia	18%	LSU	13%
AAC	Cincinnati	51%	SMU	11%	Memphis	11%
C USA	Fla Atlantic	43%	Southern Miss	17%	La Tech	16%
MAC	Western Michigan	31%	Ohio	17%	Toledo	15%
MWC	Boise State	56%	Utah State	12%	Hawaii	11%
Sun Belt	Appalachian St	55%	La Lafayette	32%	Arkansas St	8%

The MAC remains the most wide open conferences, with no team having over a 35% chance of winning the conference. The ACC remains the least wide open, as Clemson has the conference on lockdown, and it would require a big upset in the title game to knock them out.

Biggest Increases in Odds of Going 6-6 or Better

While the bowl eligibility rules can be convoluted, and there is a possibility that a few schools could get into a bowl game with a losing record and have it decided by a variety of tiebreakers, generally you have to win six games to get an invite.

Here are the teams that have most improved their chances of getting to six wins with the results of the last week.

Rank	Team	Conference	Rating	Bowl Eligible	Bowl Eligible Change	Result
25	S Carolina	SEC	11.6	80%	39%	W at Georgia 20-17
96	W Kentucky	CUSA	-9.1	83%	29%	W vs. Army 17-8
66	Louisville	ACC	-0.5	65%	29%	W at Wake Forest 62-59
104	Georgia State	Sun Belt	-11.3	81%	26%	W at Coastal Car 31-21
103	N Illinois	MAC	-10.7	37%	22%	W at Ohio 39-36
93	Florida Intl	CUSA	-8.7	68%	20%	W vs. Charlotte 48-23
94	Ball State	MAC	-8.7	70%	20%	W at E Michigan 29-23
119	Nevada	Mountain West	-19.4	43%	18%	W vs. San Jose St 41-38
101	LA Monroe	Sun Belt	-10.6	44%	18%	W at Texas State 24-14
110	Kent State	MAC	-12.9	49%	17%	W at Akron 26-3

South Carolina went from being very questionable to qualify for a bowl game to very likely, thanks to the huge win over Georgia. Louisville also got a big win over Wake Forest that now has them more likely than not to get to 6 wins on the season.

Odds of Going 11-1 or Better in Regular Season

While factors like schedule strength and particular matchups certainly play a role, one of the best indicators of being in the running for the College Football Playoff is being a Power Five Conference team that goes 11-1 or better. No team that has been 10-2 or worse before conference championship games has finished in the Top 4 in the CFP rankings yet.

For those schools outside the Power Five, being able to get to 11 wins gives you a sense of who might get invited to one of the top BCS bowl games to play against the big boys.

Rank	Team	Conference	1 or 0 Losses
4	Clemson	ACC	96%
1	Ohio State	Big Ten	90%
2	Alabama	SEC	90%
8	Oklahoma	Big 12	81%
3	Wisconsin	Big Ten	81%
26	Boise State	Mountain West	74%
5	Penn State	Big Ten	57%
6	LSU	SEC	57%
42	App State	Sun Belt	56%
24	Cincinnati	AAC	34%
11	Notre Dame	Independent I-A	29%
13	Utah	Pac-12	27%
10	Oregon	Pac-12	26%
7	Georgia	SEC	23%
34	S Methodist	AAC	23%

Clemson, Ohio State, and Alabama remain at the top when it comes to chances of being in the playoff. Oklahoma looks like the fourth option right now, especially with Georgia’s loss. That result also benefits the Big Ten indirectly. If Wisconsin and Ohio State win all their other games and split against each other (in the regular season and Big Ten title game) then both will be attractive playoff options.

Until Next Week…

Enjoy college football Week 8, and if you’re in a pick’em contest or planning on betting some of the Week 8 games, please check out our Football Pick’em Picks and College Football Betting Picks.

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